AFL Premiership Betting: Richmond Winning Margin of 1-39 points looks value bet against St Kilda

Recommended bet:

Richmond Winning Margin, 1 – 39 points @ 13/10 (2.30) with Centrebet

Lowly St Kilda take on Richmond at the Etihad Stadium on Friday evening, with the visiting Tigers looking to retain top spot in the table with six games remaining.

After registering just one win and a draw in their first dozen games of the season, St Kilda have now started to show some definite signs of improvement with three wins in their last four games.  

The task against the Tigers is another level though, especially as they are coming into this game on the back of last week’s narrow 79-77 defeat to Greater Western Sydney.

In the corresponding fixture last season, St Kilda handed out a comprehensive 138-71 thrashing to the Tigers.  The good news for Richmond is that they then won nine of their next 10 matches, including the Grand Final against Adelaide.  Even so, they will be desperate to avoid a repeat performance against the Saints on this occasion.

Despite that hefty loss last term, the Tigers have generally dominated St Kilda in recent times, winning eight of the past 10 contests.  In the reverse fixture at the Melbourne Cricket Ground earlier this season, Richmond ran out 105-77 winners. However, St Kilda forward Jade Gresham scored six goals and the Saints led by 12 points midway through the third term, before Richmond kicked nine of the last 13 goals to turn the game in their favour.  

Richmond also possess the best defensive record in the AFL Premiership this season, having conceded an average of just 71 points per match, and having given up 100 in a game only twice. By contrast, St Kilda has given up an average of 94 points per match in the current campaign. 

Despite the upturn in their fortunes and last season’s stunning 67 point victory in the corresponding fixture, it’s difficult to believe that St Kilda can pull off another win against the Tigers on this occasion.  The bookies certainly have their doubts, with St Kilda being a 6/1 (7.00) shot with Centrebet.  Richmond are 1/8 (1.13) with bet365, with the draw 95/1 (96.00) with Palmer Bet.

Perhaps the best bet here is the Winning Margin, with Centrebet’s 13/10 (2.30) on Richmond to win by between 1-39 points looking attractive.