AFL Premiership Preview: Richmond capable of overcoming hefty handicap in thrashing Gold Coast

Recommended bet:

Handicap – Richmond minus 66.5pts @ 10/11 (1.91) with Betstar*

Struggling Gold Coast welcome table-topping and reigning premiers Richmond to the Metricon Stadium on Saturday afternoon for what threatens to be a very heavy defeat for the Suns.

Gold Coast have won just four of 19 Premiership games in the current campaign and just once in their last 14 matches.  That solitary victory was just three games ago when they secured a very creditable 88-64 win at Sydney Swans, but their two results since then provide plenty of cause for concern ahead of the visit from the Tigers.

A 79-44 defeat at home to bottom of the table Carlton a fortnight ago (providing Carlton with just their second win of the season) was followed last week by a 143-47 hammering at Melbourne.

For their part, Richmond are four points clear of West Coast Eagles at the top of the league ladder with just three rounds of the regular season remaining and seemingly destined for the minor premiership, although they only just saw off Geelong 85-82 at the MCG last weekend.

The fact that the Suns did cause a major surprise in that recent win over the Swans is the one glimmer of hope that they can cling to, although it’s a glimmer that one would expect the Tigers to quickly extinguish.

The teams last met in Round 19 at the Metricon Stadium last year, with Richmond running out comfortable 98-65 winners.  In truth, if the Suns were guaranteed something around that margin of defeat on Saturday they would probably take it. Richmond’s 138-55 win at the MCG in Round 20 in 2015 might be closer to what we can expect on this occasion.

Waking up as winners ??

A post shared by Richmond ? (@richmond_fc) on Aug 3, 2018 at 4:42pm PDT

Another worrying statistic for the Suns is that this will be a contest between the best final-quarter team this season and the worst, with the Tigers having +222 points and the Suns -264 points.

The gulf in class between the two teams is reflected in the betting odds, with Richmond on offer at 1/33 (1.03) with BetEasy.  Gold Coast backers can get 16/1 (17.00) with bet365*.  The market to look at here has to be the Handicap, where the Betstar* offer of 10/11 (1.91) on Richmond -66.5 looks worth a bet.

* Odds correct at the time of writing