AFL Premiership Preview: Take Richmond to beat Collingwood by 1-39 points in Preliminary Finals

Richmond face Collingwood in the first Preliminary Final at the Melbourne Cricket Ground (MCG) on Friday evening, with the victors going on to face either West Coast Eagles or Melbourne in the Grand Final.

The size of the task facing the Magpies is illustrated by the fact that defending champions Richmond have a 100% record at the MCG this season and finished eight points clear of the chasing pack in the regular season to be crowned minor premiers.  

In the two meetings between the teams this season, the Tigers prevailed on both occasions.  In the first game at the MCG in Round 6, the Tigers won 113-70, despite the Magpies having led at stages throughout each of the first three quarters, although never by more than four points.  

The Tigers had an 11-point advantage going into the final quarter, but then kicked three goals in the next nine minutes to move into a 30-point lead that was never threatened.

It was a similar story in Round 19, with Richmond eventually running out 105-77 winners, but with the Pies in contention going into the final quarter when they trailed by just four points, only for the Tigers to score the opening five goals of the last term.

It’s been a fortnight since Richmond saw off Hawthorn 95-64 at the MCG in the Qualifying Finals, while Collingwood went down to an 86-70 defeat at the West Coast Eagles in the Perth Stadium at the same stage.  They made the most of their second opportunity though in seeing off Great Western Sydney 69-59 in the Semi Finals last weekend.

The fact that the Tigers have had an extra week to prepare could be a crucial factor, particularly in light of how both this season’s games were effectively decided only in the final quarter.  The latter stages could again be where the Pies fall short, particularly as Richmond look to move the ball quickly at every opportunity.

It’s no surprise to see Richmond as 1.40 favourites with bet365*, with Collingwood at 3.10, also at bet365*.  The draw can be backed at 56.00 with Palmer Bet, although Palmer Bet’s 2.02 on a Richmond Winning Margin of 1-39 points has more appeal.

* Odds correct at the time of writing