Hawthorn V Richmond - AFL Betting Tips & Predictions

Hawthorn V Richmond Recommended Bet:

Margin of Victory – Richmond to win by 1-20 points @ 3.70 with TopBetta*

Richmond face Hawthorn at the MCG on Thursday evening (a scheduling that certainly hasn’t met with the approval of most fans) in the AFL Premiership First Qualifying Final.

Somewhat surprisingly, it will be the first time ever that the two teams have ever met in the postseason finals.  

Richmond go into the Finals Series as warm favourites to retain the flag they won last season.  They have already been crowned minor premiers after finishing eight points clear of second placed West Coast Eagles (Hawthorn finished fourth, a further four points back) and go into the game against the Hawks on the back of 21 consecutive victories at the MCG.

The Tigers are also in fine form, having won nine of their last 10 games.  However, it’s certainly not a lost cause for Hawthorn. They’ve won their last six games to give themselves plenty of self-belief and also held Richmond to a relatively tight 102-89 scoreline in round 3 of the regular season at the MCG back in April.  Even so, it should be pointed out that the visitors only really made the scoreboard look respectable in the final quarter when the result was already beyond any reasonable doubt.

Hawthorn coach Alastair Clarkson says stopping Richmond’s key defenders marking the ball in their defensive 50 will be crucial to his side’s hopes of winning on Thursday, with the Tigers defensive quartet of Alex Rance, David Astbury, Nick Vlastuin and Dylan Grimes proving to be almost impenetrable this season.

With regards to the match odds, Richmond are strong 1.40 favourites with bet365*, while Hawthorn are 3.00 with the same bookmaker.  The draw can be backed at 61.00 with Palmer Bet for those seeking a big price.

Perhaps a better option is to look at the ‘Winning Margin’ market.  The Tigers have been held to narrow wins in three of their last four games, beating Geelong 85-82, Essendon 81-73 and, last time out, Western Bulldogs 98-95.  With the Hawks in decent form, another relatively tight margin of victory could be on the cards for Richmond and the 3.70 with TopBetta* on them winning by 1-20 points looks fairly decent.

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* Odds correct at the time of writing