Back the Geelong Cats for the new AFL regular season
March 21, 2016
- Regular Season Winners – Geelong Cats 6 at Unibet
- Top 8 Finish – Gold Coast at 3.4 bet365
- Brownlow Medal – Gary Ablett at 7 bet365
With the Nab Challenge Cup finally over and the pre-season behind us, we look forward in anticipation to what should be a blistering AFL season which before even a ball was bounced has had many ups and downs.
Looking at the season ahead there will be several key questions that need answering. Can the Hawks make it 4 in a row? How will the Crows cope without their key man in Dangerfield? Will Carlton’s rebuild have any effect? And of course, will the Bombers win a match having lost 12 players from their squad to doping charges.
I will preface this post by saying that I am only going to pick 3 standout antepost bets for the new AFL season that I feel represent good value for money with a high probability of winning and will review these within the opening weeks of the season once player injuries, stats,regular lineups etc roll in.
My first pick is for the Geelong Cats to be the regular season winners at 6/1 with Unibet. There was a slight lack of depth last year especially in the centre for the Cats and a lot of pressure was left on the captain Joel Selwood to pick up the pieces in the midfield. With stalwart and former Brownlow medalist Jimmy Bartel out injured for most of the season too, the Cats had a hit and miss season. In the trade period however they’ve traded out and allowed some of the old guard to retire, while simultaneously bringing in 4 players who are ready for the here and now:
- Patrick Dangerfield, last year’s 6th place for the Brownlow medal
- Zach Smith to help Blicavs in the ruck.
- The versatile Lachie Henderson
- Joel’s very capable brother Scott Selwood in the centre
When you put all these additions together, it’s clear the Cats have amassed a squad for a tilt at the 2016 flag and should have a very competitive regular season.
For my second pick I’m looking at the Top 8 finish betting market. For this I’m going with Gold Coast at a tasty 12/5 with Paddy Power. They had a torrid season with injuries last year missing 3 key players and 1 of those was the man many consider the best of the modern game in Gary Ablett. The change of coach and tactics clearly didn’t help either, but I feel with a full squad and pre-season, they’ll be a strong chance of hitting the Top 8.
Last but not least, I am plucking for Gary Ablett to win his 3rd Brownlow medal. Regularly notching 40 possessions a game, he’s been a class above for years and will hopefully be putting any injuries that have hampered him over the previous seasons to bed. Throw into the mix the favourite Nathan Fyfe has a habit of receiving bans and fines he’s just as likely to miss out on winning as he is to receive the medal.
I think Joel Selwood and Patrick Dangerfield will share the votes many weeks at Geelong and I expect the Eagles to fall away slightly this year so Matt Priddis may struggle to pick up votes. Ablett is currently 6/1 with bet365 and I feel once again represents good value so long as his shoulder holds out.