A-League Preview: Back Melbourne Victory for win at struggling Adelaide United
January 06, 2017
Recommended bet: Melbourne Victory to Win @ 11/10 (2.10) with bet365
Adelaide United meet Melbourne Victory at Coopers Stadium on Saturday with the two teams in very differing form.
Adelaide did at least stem a run of three straight defeats with a 0-0 draw away to Wellington Phoenix last Sunday, although they were heavily indebted to a fine display from goalkeeper Eugene Galekovic for their point.
Last season the Reds won the A-League Premiers and went on to be crowned champions after winning the Grand Final. This season they are going to need a huge turnaround in fortunes just to qualify for the Elimination Finals. To date they’ve won just one of 13 A-League games and are currently seven points shy of a play-off place.
The Reds started last season in poor form too, but they had already begun their revival by this stage of the campaign and this is a very different, less experienced team.
Victory come into this match on the back of four consecutive wins during which time they have piled up 13 goals, including eight in their last two matches. They are currently 2nd in the table, seven points adrift of leaders Sydney FC but with a game in hand.
Perhaps more importantly, they have a five-point cushion over Brisbane Roar in 3rd place and a game in hand on them too. As it stands, direct qualification for the Semi-finals is looking good.
Adelaide have struggled badly when it comes to scoring goals this season, with their tally of just 10 in total being the lowest in the A-League. Victory’s Besart Berisha has equaled that tally single-handedly, while Marco Rojas only has just one goal less.
Defensively the Reds haven’t been great either, but the 23 goals they have conceded to date is less than both Perth Glory and Central Coast Mariners. Given home advantage, it suggests they might be able to keep this reasonably close, so it probably pays to be cautious when looking at the goal markets.
Even so, it’s difficult to see past Victory going home with maximum points here and at odds against that looks to be a value bet. You can get odds of 9/5 (2.80) for a Victory win with over 2.5 goals (William Hill), but that looks less attractive.