2015 AFL Betting
December 19, 2014
The 2015 AFL season will start a little later than usual, but there’s no time like the present to start thinking about how to approach your AFL Betting.
The second running of the NAB Challenge series will once again provide some insight into the form of the teams heading into the season, but the lack of an overall winner does suggest that reading too much into results could be a mistake.
Instead, the best approach could be to tune into Fox Footy and see how some of the new signings are bedding in and how well teams are performing irrespective of results. The stats from last season will also act as a good barometer when thinking about your AFL betting and should be factored into your staking plan.
Regular Season AFL Betting
With Sydney, Hawthorn and Freemantle all finishing the regular season level on points last time, things could be mighty close once again in 2015 Regular Season Only AFL Betting.
Hawks comfortably scored the most points over the campaign, but were not as tight in the defence as they would have liked, which ultimately cost them an 11th Minor Premiership. Still it will take a brave punter to go against them finishing top of the ladder for a third time in four seasons and most people will have a saver on The Family Club in this market.
Sydney had by far the fewest points against, while still being a constant threat on the offence and although it was closer than they would have liked, the balanced approach paid off to land Swans an 8th Minor Premiership. If they can replicate that form in the coming season then they are likely to go close, but losing in the Grand Final may have a hangover effect and I’d be tempted to see how things are after the trip to Port Adelaide in Round 2.
If Geelong get off to a good start against Hawks at the MCG in Round 1 then expect their odds for a Minor Premiership to shorten. Third in the ladder last term, The Cats couldn’t match the goals of the two teams above them over 22 games and they may struggle to replicate a points tally of 68 this time around.
Port Adelaide weren’t far off having the right blend in 2014 and with a bit more luck could enter calculations, while Freemantle have less ground to make up on their efforts of last season and North Melbourne’s run to the Prelimaries will give them confidence. This trio look to be the teams to focus on for those who like a bit of a long-shot and fancy Hawthorn and Sydney to come up short.
AFL Finals Betting
Hawks may have missed out on the minor honours last term, but showed that they remain very much a side for the big occasion when recording a landslide win over Sydney at the MCG in the Grand Final. Hawthorn’s 12th Premiership was their second in succession and they’re a shoe-in for the finals. This of course makes them a short price in the Grand Final winner market for AFL betting, but few would bet against them making it down to the last two at least.
Sydney cruised past Freemantle and North Melbourne before having a game to forget in the big one, but remain a leading contender for Grand Final glory nonetheless. They’ve made it to the season finale in two of the last three seasons and have to be considered as Hawks main contenders, the side they beat to secure a 5th premiership in 2012.
Port Adelaide were unlucky to run into Hawthorn at the Preliminary Finals and gave us a truly memorable match of footy, losing by just three points in a 97-94 thriller. The 2004 Premiers were also runners-up in 2007 and have made the last 8 in each of the previous two years, so will need to be taken very seriously again in 2015.
Freemantle fell apart when it mattered, while North Melbourne showed some grit to make it as far as the Preliminary Finals and Geelong will want another chance to prove themselves along with Richmond and Essendon. That quintet represent the most likely outsiders to upset the odds, while of those that didn’t make the finals last year it’s Gold Coast who look the bet with the likes of Tom Waterhouse and Winner Sports offering each-way terms.
Coleman Medal AFL Betting
Having won the Coleman medal in 2011 for Hawthorn, Lance Franklin was able to repeat the trick in his first season at Sydney with 67 regular season goals and 79 including the finals. He’s the hot-favourite to win it for a third time in 2015 and if successful, will become the first back-to-back winner since Fraser Gehrig did it for St Kilda in 2004 and 2005.
He’ll face stiff competition from Hawthorn’s Jarryd Roughead who has already won the Coleman Medel in 2013, while two-time winner Jack Riewoldt is available at almost double the odds of the market leader and could come into calculations if Richmond have a good season.
Futher down the betting West Coast’s Josh Kennedy scored 61 goals and 33 behinds last season and may make for an interesting long-shot in Coleman Medal AFL betting, while interestingly Port Adelaide’s Jay Shulz scored more than him with 66 goals and 26 behinds and is available at a much bigger price.
However, the one that may have slipped under the radar is Tom Hawkins who scored 68 goals and 40 behinds for Geelong last term. If he can steer a few more of his efforts through the central posts in 2015 then he should be bang there heading into the finals and is available at more enticing odds than those at the head of the betting.